Drought Warning for Belize As El Niño Threat Looms
The effects of climate change may still seem distant, but experts say Belize cannot afford to wait. Scientists are warning that a strengthening El Niño could bring hotter temperatures, less rainfall and an increased risk of drought across the region in the months ahead. For a country that depends heavily on agriculture and reliable water supplies, the consequences could be far-reaching. Tonight, we look at why climate experts are urging governments, farmers and communities to start preparing now, before the next dry season tightens its grip.
Cedric Van Meerbeeck
Dr. Cedric Van Meerbeeck, Climatologist, CIMH
“There are strong signs that much of the region can expect drier conditions in the coming months, particular in the eastern and southern Caribbean and in the Guyana, but over the summertime it is typically the northern islands in the Caribbean and Belize that is included as well when an El Nino is stifling the atmosphere and depriving it from its moisture and leading to less rainfall. Where are we expecting the most impacts and when exactly? Well, for drought this is something that is going to impact the region more significantly in the upcoming dry season which will start in November, December or January depending on where you are in the region. We are not expecting to see the worst impact of the drought until we are way into the dry season and the reason why that is, is because you have to factor in two things, one if you have less rainfall during the wet season then you start your reservoirs or soil moisture at a lower level than you should be at the wet season, then during the dry season, because your water does not get replenished as fast then you get your reservoirs and soil moisture to go down.”
Severe Drought Threatens Belize’s Food Supply
For many Belizean farmers, the forecast is becoming just as important as the harvest. Climate experts warn that worsening drought conditions linked to a strengthening El Niño could put crop production at risk, raising concerns about food security in the months ahead. Northwestern Belize is already being flagged as a drought hotspot through September, and forecasters say reduced rainfall could lead to lower yields for farmers who lack access to irrigation and other safeguards.
Cedric Van Meerbeeck
Dr. Cedric Van Meerbeeck, Climatologist, CIMH
“What we are seeing now in terms of agricultural drought is that particularly in the north west of the country risks being affected through the month of September. Our forecast for agricultural drought only goes to end of September at this time. Next month we will have another one. Last one it was only until the end of August. So this is a where you can expect rain-fed crop land, if they are not supplemented with protection strategies like mulching to preserve some of the moisture in the ground, or irrigation that there could be a reduction in the crop yields. The dryness is also something that will continue into the dry season. So the crop yields will be a bit lower in places that are affected now, but it could also continue into the next year to some extent.”
The institute encourages regional policy makers to take note of its forecast and plan accordingly.
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