Super El Niño Predicted to Cause More Than 400,000 Deaths
El Niño has strengthened further, with temperatures in a region of the Pacific Ocean reaching about 3°C above average in mid-September, as forecasters warn it could become one of the strongest on record.
The latest update from the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) shows the Niño-3.4 index, a measure of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, reached +3.0°C in mid-September.
IRI says all 22 of the climate models it monitors expect a very strong El Niño through the Northern Hemisphere winter, with several projecting temperatures above 3°C during the peak period.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) expects El Niño conditions to persist through at least February 2027. The WMO has warned that a strong El Niño can significantly alter rainfall and temperature patterns worldwide, increasing the risk of drought, flooding and extreme heat.
A new report from the University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab is putting the potential human cost of the heat into sharper focus. Researchers project that El Niño could contribute to 451,000 additional heat-related deaths worldwide between June 2026 and February 2027, compared with a typical year.
The report projects global land temperatures will average about 1.2°C above normal levels in the coming months, with 44% more extremely hot days than would normally be expected. The researchers say the heaviest impacts are likely to fall on countries in the Global South, particularly in Africa and South and Southeast Asia.
In Brazil, heavier rainfall linked to the strong El Niño has delayed sugarcane harvesting and affected decisions over how much cane is processed into sugar or ethanol, according to Reuters.
El Niño is expected to remain strong through the end of 2026 and could continue affecting weather patterns into 2027. Scientists will be watching closely to see how the unusually warm Pacific waters develop in the months ahead.
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