World Bank Projects Belize Growth of 2.4% in 2026, Slowing Through 2028

The World Bank projects Belize’s economy will grow 2.4 per cent in 2026, then slow to 2.2 per cent in 2027 and 2.0 per cent in 2028. This is according to its Latin America and the Caribbean Economic Update.

Belize grew 2.6 per cent in 2025 and 3.5 per cent in 2024, according to the report.

Regionally, the World Bank projects growth of 2.2 per cent in 2026, down from 2.4 per cent in 2025. It describes the performance as resilience in the face of external shocks but says the figure reflects “the current policy equilibrium, not the region’s potential.” Sticky inflation, tight fiscal space and high real borrowing costs are weighing on private demand, it says.

Growth paths are diverging. The report points to Argentina, El Salvador, Paraguay, Panama and the Dominican Republic as stronger performers, crediting “durable policy choices”. In the Caribbean, it contrasts the oil-driven expansions in Guyana and Suriname with “the maturing, more tempered post-pandemic recovery of tourism-dependent island economies facing high energy and transportation costs. “Food- and energy-importing Caribbean economies face higher import costs and softer tourism demand,” it says.

The World Bank says risks are tilted to the downside. Energy price swings tied to the Middle East conflict could stall disinflation and keep central banks cautious, and El Niño could disrupt production and push up food and energy prices. It says El Niño threatens droughts that affect hydropower and agriculture, as well as episodes of excessive rainfall. Several countries are already issuing early warnings, staging emergency supplies or securing contingent disaster financing.

The report’s second chapter looks at artificial intelligence, which it says could raise productivity but only if the region builds the capacity to use it. It argues Latin America does not need to build “multibillion-dollar frontier models” and should instead focus on “small AI”, low-cost tools that solve specific local problems and can reach people through basic phones.

It estimates 78.1 per cent of the region’s workforce is in jobs that involve the physical world and warns that informal workers are protected from automation only by low wages. The World Bank calls on governments to fix data systems, buy digital government tools, fund extension services for small firms, and finance worker reskilling.