Cruise Ships In, Groceries Up: Belize’s Mixed Bag

Belize’s economy is showing some serious staying power. Despite big hits to agriculture and manufacturing, the country still managed to grow by two percent in the first quarter of 2025. That’s right, while sugarcane and citrus took a dive, tourism and services stepped up in a big way. Cruise ships are docking, hotels are buzzing, and financial services are booming. But here’s the twist: while more Belizeans are working than ever before, many are still feeling the pinch at the grocery store, and not everyone’s sharing in the recovery. So, is this a comeback story… or a tale of two economies? Let’s break it down.

 

Belize’s Economy Grows 2% in Q1 2025 Despite Agricultural Setbacks

Belize’s economy showed resilience in the first quarter of 2025, posting a 2.0% growth despite significant contractions in agriculture and manufacturing. According to the Statistical Institute of Belize, the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reached $1.486 billion, up from $1.457 billion in the same period last year. The tertiary sector led the charge, expanding by 7.4% to $977.6 million, fueled by a 12.2% surge in accommodation and food services and a 12.6% boost in financial and insurance services. Tourism played a key role, with cruise arrivals rising 5.2% and overnight visitors up 1.9%. However, the primary sector shrank by 10.8%, hit hard by a 29.7% drop in sugarcane production due to fusarium disease, and steep declines in citrus and banana outputs. The secondary sector also fell 8.7%, driven by a 20.4% slump in manufacturing, including a 36.9% drop in sugar production and a two-third plunge in citrus concentrate output. Despite these challenges, marine exports surged 38.5%, and electricity generation rose 9%, signaling pockets of strength in the economy. Belize’s Q1 performance highlights a shifting economic landscape, with services outpacing traditional agriculture and manufacturing.

 

Prices Are Up—But Are We Really Feeling the Pinch?

In May 2025, Belize’s inflation rate ticked up by 1.0%, with everyday essentials like food, rent, and cooking gas leading the charge. While that may sound modest, the rising cost of basics: like bread, fruit juices, and even deodorant has many Belizeans wondering: Is life quietly getting more expensive? At the same time, fuel prices have dropped, and some tech gadgets are cheaper. But does that really help the average household struggling to keep up with grocery bills and rent hikes? With San Pedro seeing the steepest price increases and Independence Village actually experiencing a drop in prices, the question becomes: Who’s really benefiting—and who’s being left behind—in this shifting economy?

 

Is Belize’s Job Market Booming—or Just Shifting?

The unemployment rate has dropped to a record low of 2.1%, and nearly 13,700 new jobs were added over the past year. On the surface, that sounds like great news. But dig a little deeper, and the picture becomes more complex. While more people are working, women and young people are still being left behind. Men are far more likely to be in the workforce, and youth unemployment remains stubbornly high. Meanwhile, informal jobs—often unstable and without benefits—make up more than a third of all employment. So, is this economic progress truly inclusive? Or are some groups still being left out of the recovery?

 

Isani Cayetano for News Five.