After years of record-high fentanyl seizures at the US-Mexico border, US authorities are now seeing a noticeable and unexpected decline.
According to US Customs and Border Protection, average monthly fentanyl seizures have fallen from 1,700 pounds in 2024 to 746 pounds so far this year. The trend has left officials confounded, especially as overdose deaths have also plunged by nearly 27% compared to 2023, The Washington Post reported.
The Trump administration credits its tough border policies, saying the drop is “thanks to President Trump’s policies empowering law enforcement officials to dismantle drug trafficking networks.” However, The Washington Post reported that records show seizures were already decreasing before Trump took office.
Experts are exploring multiple possible explanations, from infighting within the Sinaloa cartel to shortages of chemical precursors from China. “One cannot deny there is a big drop,” said Vanda Felbab-Brown of the Brookings Institution to The Washington Post. “How long it’s going to last is the critical thing.”
Some researchers believe users may be consuming less fentanyl due to adulterants like xylazine. “They don’t want to conk out all the time,” said epidemiologist Nabarun Dasgupta. Others suggest smoking, rather than injecting, could be helping reduce overdoses, indicating that this shift in the opioid crisis in North America remains largely unexplained.