ECLAC Warns of Sluggish Caribbean Growth; Belize Projected at 1.5% in 2025

The United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) has released its latest Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean 2025: Resource Mobilisation to Finance Development, warning that the region is entering another year of low economic growth.

For the Caribbean, excluding Guyana, GDP is forecast to expand by just 1.8% in 2025 and 1.7% in 2026, a slowdown from 2024. Belize’s economy is projected to grow by 1.5% in 2025 and 2.5% in 2026.

ECLAC attributes the overall deceleration to weaker growth in the United States, reduced global demand for tourism and other services, high energy and transport costs, and the region’s exposure to natural disasters.

Guyana remains the outlier, with an estimated 10.3% GDP growth in 2025 and a striking 23% in 2026, fuelled by heavy investment in its hydrocarbons sector.

The report also notes that Latin America and the Caribbean are expected to post a current account deficit of 1.1% of GDP in 2025, with external vulnerabilities persisting due to reliance on foreign direct investment and external borrowing amid rising financing costs and weaker capital inflows.

Domestic demand is projected to remain sluggish, driven by slower private consumption, weaker labour income, high interest rates, and low consumer confidence. Public spending will be limited by tight fiscal space, and investment is expected to stay modest at 18.5% of GDP.

Employment growth is set to slow to 1.5% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026, although unemployment should remain stable at 5.6%, and informality is forecast to continue declining. Inflation is expected to hover at around 3%, but could rise if food and energy prices spike or geopolitical tensions worsen.

ECLAC urges countries, including Belize, to improve spending efficiency, invest in key sectors such as infrastructure and education, pursue progressive tax reforms, and strengthen fiscal institutions. It also stresses the need for coordinated fiscal, monetary, and exchange-rate policies, as well as greater regional integration and diversification, to build resilience against external shocks and support sustainable growth.