Experts Warn Trump Strikes Could Trigger New Venezuelan Migration Wave

President Donald Trump blames Nicolás Maduro for drugs and migration, but experts are saying that Trump’s military threats against Venezuela could trigger a new refugee crisis.

Trump maintains that Venezuela has “dumped hundreds of thousands of people into our country from prisons”, despite there being no evidence Venezuelan migrants disproportionately served prison time, according to CNN News.

The Trump administration has continuously ordered strikes on alleged drug vessels at sea since September, and has threatened that attacks on drug cartels in Venezuela would begin “very soon.”

However, experts say even limited strikes could trigger mass displacement, similar to the 2017 crisis that forced thousands of Venezuelans to the US.

A Niskanen Center study found that strikes could force 1.7 million to 3 million people to flee within a few years if a brief internal conflict occurred. A prolonged conflict could push more than 4 million people from Venezuela, which would overwhelm neighbouring countries like Colombia and Brazil.

“Any kind of military strike would cause panic and disrupt supply chains, and it would be very easy for rumours to spread and push people to flee,” said Gil Guerra, immigration policy analyst at the Niskanen Center.

Meanwhile, former US Ambassador to Venezuela James Story said he does not expect large-scale displacement from limited, targeted strikes. “If the US took kinetic action, it would pale in comparison to the millions who’ve already fled,” he told CNN. “I don’t think you’d see many people flee at all…The only way I see a humanitarian crisis is if there is widespread, sustained military combat.”