New Study Shows Belize’s Economy Hasn’t Progressed in 20 Years

This morning, the University of Belize turned the spotlight on the nation’s economy—past, present, and future. At a special policy research seminar, renowned economics professor Victor Bulmer-Thomas unveiled a thought-provoking paper titled ‘The Belizean Economy in the Twenty-First Century: When and Why Belize Fell Behind and What to Do About It.’ The study dives deep into Belize’s economic journey and lays out bold, long-term strategies for turning things around. So, where did we go off track and how do we get back on it? News Five’s Britney Gordon has the story.

 

Britney Gordon, Reporting

Belize’s economy may be bouncing back, but is it really catching up? In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic brought tourism to a standstill and sent the economy into a sharp decline. Fast forward five years, and the government is celebrating an impressive 8.2% GDP growth in 2024, second highest in the region. But a new study is raising eyebrows. Economist Victor Bulmer-Thomas says that despite the recovery, Belize still ranks as the third poorest country in the region. His message? The numbers may look good, but they’re hiding a much deeper problem.

 

Victor Bulmer-Thomas, Honorary Professor

“I then asked the question  of why? What has happened that might have brought that about? And I focused on three things in particular. One is exports. Which are really not high enough for a country that like Belize and which aspires to have a higher standard of living. The second was the low investment ratio, particularly by the private domestic investors who face all sorts of difficulties in trying to compete with the foreign investors, for example. And the third thing was the issue of government. Government spending in terms of education, health, all those sorts of things, which are needed to bring the standard of living home. But to increase government spending, there has to be an increase in government revenue.”

 

Using data from the Statistical Institute of Belize and the Central Bank, economist Victor Bulmer-Thomas found that Belize’s income per capita in 2024 is nearly the same as it was in 2007—meaning living standards haven’t really improved. He suggests the government could boost revenue by cracking down on tax evasion instead of raising taxes. Dr. Dylan Vernon from the Belize Policy Research Institute says the country still faces major economic challenges.

 

Dr. Dylan Vernon, Executive Director, Belize Policy Research Institute

“There has been a decrease in living standards and indicates that we are comparatively in decline of that matrix. So the paper basically highlighted that it told us why, which is basically the fact that we have low investment we have an export situation where we’re not exporting enough, importing too much and so that, that contributes to the issue.”

 

According to the study, Belize’s position has also declined in Central America over the past few decades.

 

Victor Bulmer-Thomas

“I’m not going  to single out any country in particular, but given that there are thirty-four countries in the Caribbean, if you include all the non-independent ones, sixteen independent and eighteen non-independent. All of them trying to export services like Belize. There are many examples of successful service experts, not just tourism, which Belize could look to try and diversify its economy and raise its standard of living.”

 

Could a data-driven strategy be the key to unlocking Belize’s economic potential? A new study thinks so. It recommends that Belize start using something called the input-output matrix—a tool that tracks how goods and services move between industries.

 

Dr. Dylan Vernon

“We will be making , in fact, we are making this the paper that was presented accessible free of cost downloadable on the website of the University of Belize on the page for free. And also we’ve done a couple flyers that break down the information for wider access. But the most important thing that BELPRI will be doing now is to advocate for use of this input output approach as a policy making tool for Belize.”

 

BELPRI hopes to share this information with relevant stakeholders and the public to fuel the mission for a more robust and sustainable economy. Britney Gordon for News Five.

The study is free to download on the University of Belize’s website.