SIB Breaks Down the Survey Belizeans Didn’t Believe
After last week’s report on rising consumer confidence drew public backlash, News Five sat down with Jacqueline Sabal, manager of the Economic Statistics Department at the Statistical Institute of Belize, to better understand how the index is actually calculated and what the numbers really mean.
Sabal explained that the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) is built from a monthly telephone survey conducted across the country, measuring three components: how people feel about their current household finances compared to a year ago, their expectations for the year ahead, and whether they believe it’s a good time to make major purchases like a house, car, or furniture.
“We ask them how they’re feeling about their present conditions, meaning how do you feel now compared to a year ago regarding your household finances and general economic conditions? We also ask them about expectations: do they think things will improve, get better, or get worse a year from now? And we also ask them questions about whether they believe it’s a good time to purchase major items.”
She stressed that the survey is a perception study, not a direct measure of the economy itself. “It’s asking persons about how they’re feeling. Depending on whether they’re feeling optimistic or pessimistic, it is an indication of what future spending will look like in the economy. If persons are feeling optimistic, the idea is that they’ll spend more money, and we can expect more economic activity. If persons are feeling pessimistic, the idea is that they’ll save more, and we won’t see as much economic activity.”
Addressing the core of the public’s frustration directly, Sabal clarified that despite the uptick reported in July, Belize’s overall confidence level remains firmly in negative territory. “The consumer confidence index has a reference point of 50. If the index goes above 50, we’re in levels of optimism. If the index is below 50, then we’re feeling pessimistic. The index for July was at 42.6, which is still within levels of pessimism.”
She noted that while the July figure marked the first monthly increase since the start of the year, following a steady downward trend, one month of data isn’t enough to declare a real shift in sentiment. “To know if that slight increase is a real change in consumer sentiment, we would have to look at it over a longer period of time and not just at that one month in time. We would need more months of data collection to see if it continues to go up or if the index continues to trend down or stay steady. But in terms of any trends that we have been seeing this year specifically, it has been trending down.”
Sabal confirmed the survey samples. Belizeans across all districts nationwide, with sample sizes proportionate to each district’s population.