2025-06-27 - Greater Belize Media

Sugar Shortfall: Weather, Disease, and a Bitter Harvest

The 2024/2025 sugarcane season has officially wrapped up, and the results are hard to ignore. BSI’s Director of Finance, Shawn Chavarria, says this year’s crop is one of the worst in decades, with cane deliveries falling below eight hundred and eighty-four thousand metric tons and sugar production expected to dip under seventy-nine thousand metric tons. That’s a twenty-five percent drop from last year—and the lowest output in nearly forty years. So, what went wrong? From extreme weather and crop disease to poor cane quality and long factory stoppages, the challenges were many. But as losses climb into the tens of millions and farmers brace for lower payments, the bigger question is: How can Belize’s sugar industry weather future storms—and is it time to rethink how we grow and grind?

Shawn Chavarria, Director of Finance, B.S.I.

“This morning, we concluded the 2024/2025 milling season. The total cane received is just under eight hundred and eighty-four thousand metric tons of cane. That’s a low for us. The previous low was in the 2020 crop when we had the impacts of the severe drought from 2019 where we had milled just slightly under nine hundred thousand metric tons of cane. So, for us, it’s not a very good crop and what has compounded it is the lower quality of cane that we received this year. Our TCTS, we’re still going to be liquidating the factory in the coming days, but our TCTS will end up somewhere around 11.1 or 11.2 which is one of the lowest we’ve seen since the 2010 crop. Total sugar production is estimated after liquidation to be somewhere around just under seventy-nine thousand metric tons of sugarcane. That’s certainly one of the lowest we’ve had in the past thirty-five to forty years. The previous low was in 2008, when we had produced just over seventy-nine thousand metric tons. So we’ll be below that figure and so it’s not a very good crop from our standpoint. It’s been very challenging. We’ve have a lot of issues with weather, disease. We had long stops as well due to heavy rains at the early outset of the crop. From our standpoint, production, compared to last year which, even at that level, was not ideal at 104,000 metric tons of cane, we’re going to be twenty-five percent below that figure. So our losses will be significant this year. In the tens of millions of dollars. Growers will similarly see a reduction in the cane price. Not only because sugar prices have been lower, but the quality of cane, that TCTS ratio is much higher. So, from the same cane, you are getting less sugar.”

Fusarium Wreaks Havoc on Sugarcane Fields

Belize’s sugar industry is facing one of its worst crises in recent memory. The season has come to a sudden and painful close, with record low yields and millions in losses. The culprit? A devastating fungal disease known as fusarium, which has infected over sixty thousand acres of sugarcane, and severely damaged another eighty thousand. The result? A projected thirty percent drop in production, a staggering fifty-three million dollars in losses, and a tough road ahead for farmers already bracing for a sharp cut in earnings. So, what’s next for one of Belize’s most vital industries? And can it recover before it’s too late?

Prime Minister John Briceño

“The effect of it all is that today the sugar crop has come to an end and it will be one of the worst sugar crops we have had in recent times. By this morning again the estimate is around eight hundred and eighty thousand tons of cane would have been delivered. What is even worse is that the tons of cane to produce one ton of sugar has been even worst. The current tons per of cane per ton of sugar is twelve tons of cane for one ton of sugar. When the cane is really good you are getting nine tons for one ton of sugar. So we are using two tons and a quarter more to make one ton of sugar. So, this is by far the worst we have had in production in recent history since 2011. BSI will produce just over seventy-eight tons of sugar. For context, this year the factory will produce seventy-nine thousand, ninety-seven thousand 3eight hundred tons less than what was produced last year and one hundred and fifty-four thousand tons less than what it produced in 2019. With a production of eight hundred and eighty thousand tons of cane producing seventy-eight thousand tons of sugar the industry is projected to earn one hundred and ten million dollars, mostly in foreign exchange, representing a significant reduction to fifty-three million from one hundred and fifty-six point five million dollars generated in 2024. Based on the current sugar price estimate farmers are expected to earn no more than sixty-five dollars per ton of cane this year. This represents a reduction of twenty-five dollars per ton when compared to ninety dollars and twenty-three cents per ton that was paid out last year. Our farmers will take home thirty-one million dollars less than it took home last year.”

Close To $3 Million Dollars to Adress Sugar Crisis

With sugarcane fields under threat from a fast-spreading disease, the government is stepping in with a five hundred-thousand-dollar pilot project to test treatments that show early signs of success. But that’s just the beginning. Backed by regional and international partners, nearly three million dollars has now been identified for an emergency response. Prime Minister John Briceño says it’s clear what needs to be done: prevent the north from suffering the same fate as the south. But with the clock ticking and farmers already feeling the pressure, will this be enough to turn things around before it’s too late?

Prime Minister John Briceño

“We cannot and we will not allow, what happened to the sugar industry in the south to happen to our sugar cane farmers in the north. If we are to be successful at this interministerial collaboration taking place it is will be important to do some of the following interventions, which we have to start implementation immediately. One, five hundred thousand dollars has already been identified by the ministry of agriculture which will be allocated immediately to a pilot project to start ridding these fields of the disease. Last November SIRDI moved quickly to identify a possible treatment option and earlier this year testing this technology on two farm plots. The results of this treatment looks promising. We also met with BSI/ASR and they have brought in their soil scientist where they have had a lot of success. They also have a treatment for this fungus. They will be working with us, it is a joint effort to see how we will halt this disease and cure some of the fields infected. With this hundred thousand dollars the plan is to replicate this treatment on a larger scale to treat the first two thousand five hundred acres.”

P.M. Briceño also revealed that Senior Economist Doctor Marcelino Avilla has been appointed to lead a sugar committee tasked with developing a plan to modernize the industry based on recommendations from the commission of inquiry report.

Raise Local Sugar Price to Combat Contrabandists?

With the sugar industry in crisis, many Belizeans are wondering if grocery store shelves will soon be empty. But according to Agriculture Minister Jose Mai, the real threat isn’t a lack of supply, it’s illegal exports. As Mexico faces its own sugar shortage, contrabandists are eyeing Belize’s cheaper, high-quality sugar. And that, says Minister Mai, could drain the local market. His proposed solution? Raise the local price to keep sugar at home.

Jose Abelardo Mai, Minister of Agriculture

“I think there is a drop in the production of sugar, I think it is seventy eight thousand tons from a hundred and ten thousand tons. That is a twenty-five thousand tons drop in production. But our local consumption is twelve thousand tons. So we have for local consumption. What I am uncertain of is how is Mexico coping with their local demand. Local have three markets, the world market and the U.S. market. But their price is three times higher than Belize. So if the price is three times there and our price is seventy-five cents, the contraband becomes rampant, uncontrollable. That is why oi am saying we need to increase our price to maintain our sugar here. And damned we will not import sugar from the U.S. this year. This is not something we encourage. It is not good for the country. We have a local consumption. It is not good for the people and we export the excess.”

Paul Lopez

“You are saying we will need to increase the local price of sugar, when will that happen?”

Jose Mai

“Well we have been looking at it for sometime. We are getting some push back. But I think it is fair the farmers get a fair price for sugar. We are working on a paper, I submitted one to Cabinet but we did not get approval for it. But we think it is necessary for farmers to get an increase on their sugar. It is important that it is justified and it is equitable.”

So, will it work or just make things harder for consumers already feeling the pinch?

Cruise Ships In, Groceries Up: Belize’s Mixed Bag

Belize’s economy is showing some serious staying power. Despite big hits to agriculture and manufacturing, the country still managed to grow by two percent in the first quarter of 2025. That’s right, while sugarcane and citrus took a dive, tourism and services stepped up in a big way. Cruise ships are docking, hotels are buzzing, and financial services are booming. But here’s the twist: while more Belizeans are working than ever before, many are still feeling the pinch at the grocery store, and not everyone’s sharing in the recovery. So, is this a comeback story… or a tale of two economies? Let’s break it down.

Belize’s Economy Grows 2% in Q1 2025 Despite Agricultural Setbacks

Belize’s economy showed resilience in the first quarter of 2025, posting a 2.0% growth despite significant contractions in agriculture and manufacturing. According to the Statistical Institute of Belize, the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reached $1.486 billion, up from $1.457 billion in the same period last year. The tertiary sector led the charge, expanding by 7.4% to $977.6 million, fueled by a 12.2% surge in accommodation and food services and a 12.6% boost in financial and insurance services. Tourism played a key role, with cruise arrivals rising 5.2% and overnight visitors up 1.9%. However, the primary sector shrank by 10.8%, hit hard by a 29.7% drop in sugarcane production due to fusarium disease, and steep declines in citrus and banana outputs. The secondary sector also fell 8.7%, driven by a 20.4% slump in manufacturing, including a 36.9% drop in sugar production and a two-third plunge in citrus concentrate output. Despite these challenges, marine exports surged 38.5%, and electricity generation rose 9%, signaling pockets of strength in the economy. Belize’s Q1 performance highlights a shifting economic landscape, with services outpacing traditional agriculture and manufacturing.

Prices Are Up—But Are We Really Feeling the Pinch?

In May 2025, Belize’s inflation rate ticked up by 1.0%, with everyday essentials like food, rent, and cooking gas leading the charge. While that may sound modest, the rising cost of basics: like bread, fruit juices, and even deodorant has many Belizeans wondering: Is life quietly getting more expensive? At the same time, fuel prices have dropped, and some tech gadgets are cheaper. But does that really help the average household struggling to keep up with grocery bills and rent hikes? With San Pedro seeing the steepest price increases and Independence Village actually experiencing a drop in prices, the question becomes: Who’s really benefiting—and who’s being left behind—in this shifting economy?

Is Belize’s Job Market Booming—or Just Shifting?

The unemployment rate has dropped to a record low of 2.1%, and nearly 13,700 new jobs were added over the past year. On the surface, that sounds like great news. But dig a little deeper, and the picture becomes more complex. While more people are working, women and young people are still being left behind. Men are far more likely to be in the workforce, and youth unemployment remains stubbornly high. Meanwhile, informal jobs—often unstable and without benefits—make up more than a third of all employment. So, is this economic progress truly inclusive? Or are some groups still being left out of the recovery?

Isani Cayetano for News Five.

A Pay Raise is on the Table, PM Briceno Says It’s a Fair Deal

Prime Minister John Briceño is applauding his negotiation team after a key meeting with the joint unions in Belize City on Thursday. The government is offering a four-and-a-half percent salary adjustment this October, followed by another four percent boost in October 2026. On top of that, two salary increments are set to return, one in April 2026 and another in April 2027. PM Briceño is calling it an “affordable proposal,” but will it be enough to satisfy union demands? That’s the big question moving forward.

Prime Minister John Briceño

“Also, we continue to work with our unions to come to a fair and just resolution om the matter of their salary adjustment. I am assured that yesterday’s meeting of the joint union negotiating team was cordial and productive. I have to take time to thank the DPM and his team, the chairman, Minister Requena, Minister Florencio, Minister Fonesca and Coye are both out of the country. But they had a good meeting, cordial, tense at times because both sides are working hard to make their points. I believe that at the end they have come with something that can be supported by both the government and the unions. Our government has once again offered a counterproposal to the unions that is affordable, one that would get for our teachers and public officers am eight point five percent salary adjustment and increments in a reasonable time period. We have never doubted we will reach an amicable solution with the unions because we have and will always continue to act in good faith. Just as we have no doubt that together we will manage the external and internal shocks we face. This PUP government has not and will not throw up our hands when it comes to facing the difficult tasks that come with governance. We will nether grieve or weep. We will work, because that is what the people expect from us and that is why they are standing with us.”

Strike Countdown Nears: Unions to Decide Sunday

The clock is ticking on a potential public service strike. Earlier this month, the Public Service Union gave official notice of their intent to take industrial action, and that twenty-one-day countdown is almost up. With the deadline just days away, Labor Minister Florencio Marin joined Thursday’s negotiations as an observer, keeping a close eye on talks between the government and the joint union team. Today, he told us the unions have promised a response to the government’s latest proposal by Sunday. And that response? It could determine whether the Ministry of Labor steps in, or whether the country braces for a strike.

Florencio Marin, Minister of Labor

“We do have an obligation to start participating from the labor ministry. We have been asked to get ourselves involved, either to mediate or send it back to them to continue negotiations, or if need be to take it to a tribunal. That is where we are at right now.”

Reporter

“Is Sunday the cut off date?”

Florencio Marin

“No it is not. But the unions told the government side they will respond on Sunday. So form there we will know. One of the things in their letter they have wrote is that they have reached an impasse. And from what I saw in the meeting it did seem quite constructive in the conversation they had. I actually enjoyed witnessing it. But I have to wait until Sunday to see what the response is. I am hoping it is a positive one.”

GOB Legislates Commitment to Grant Aided Schools

The Government of Belize is making good on a major commitment to teachers. Under Proposal Twenty-Two, the Briceño administration pledged to fully cover the salaries and pensions of staff at grant-aided schools starting in 2024. That promise, hailed as a big win for educators, is now being written into law. But how much will this cost taxpayers? Education Minister Oscar Requena breaks down the numbers behind this historic move.

Oscar Requena, Minister of Education

“Subsection one of proposal twenty-two proposed that the ministry of education and the government pays the full one hundred percent salaries and benefits of all grants aided secondary and tertiary level educational institutions in Belize. This full salary payment would offer all qualifying teachers and administrators full one hundred percent pensions and service benefits for all staff, whether teaching or non- teaching would be honored. It is important to note that the Ministry of Education and the government currently pays a salary grant of seventy percent, moving it now to a hundred percent in proposal twenty-two. For 2024 the estimated seventy percent salary grant stood at thirty million nine hundred and eleven thousand six hundred and fifty-seven dollars and sixty-nine cents. The thirty percent additional salaries and service benefits increased by thirteen million two hundred and forty-seven thousand eight hundred and fifty-three thousand and thirty cents. The projected allowance for secondary school students is seven hundred and ninety thousand three hundred dollars, bringing it to a total of forty-four million nine hundred and forty-nine thousand eight hundred and ten dollars and ninety-nine cents.”

Panton and Team Go Back to Court for Clarification

The rift inside the United Democratic Party is deepening. Tracy Taegar-Panton and her camp are once again challenging the leadership of Moses ‘Shyne’ Barrow, this time, in court. After a judge ruled her expulsion from the party was unlawful, Panton is making it clear: she and other senior members aren’t going anywhere. In fact, she says they remain full members, with all rights and privileges intact. But the party’s official response? Not so fast. A press release under the UDP’s letterhead insists the court hearing changes nothing. So, who’s really calling the shots, and what does this mean for the future of the UDP? We caught up with Panton today in Belmopan.

Tracy Taegar-Panton, Leader of the Opposition

“I thought the court ruling was clear the first time around when it was published on the twenty-first of May. However the way we were treated as members of the party did not reflect the decision of the judge. We sought clarification internally and there was a difference of view as to what the judge said and meant. So, the only way to declare is to seek clarification from the high court, which was done. The High Court has now made it abundantly clear that the expulsions were illegal. They are invalid, therefore void and of no legal effect. That was my understand the first time. Now the onus is on the Central Executive of the party to ensure that my membership and the membership of the other colleagues who were purportedly expelled be dne away with, that our rights and privileges be recognized as members of the UDP, so we can move forward in an effort to try and bridge the divide, unite the party and be the robust opposition that we have a mandate to be.”

Panton Fights on as Political Party Splinters

The back-and-forth inside the United Democratic Party just got even more tangled. A new press release from Moses ‘Shyne’ Barrow’s camp says the court didn’t actually confirm Tracy Taegar-Panton’s membership in the UDP—and that it’s up to the party, not the judge, to decide who stays and who goes. But Panton isn’t backing down. We asked her directly about that claim and got her take on how this ongoing tug-of-war is deepening the wounds in a party already struggling to heal.

Tracy Taegar-Panton, Leader of the Opposition

“That is not what the judge said in court yesterday. I have not seen the most recent press release from Jamal Barrow, purporting to be from the UDP, because I am doubtful that the party will hold itself out to be in contempt of court. SO I am sure that release was sent by Jamal Barrow. The matter is the judge explained as he did the first time that the inner workings of the party is not for the court, however the matter of law is for the court. The party can choose to take action against me in the future, but it has to do so through the proper process and provision of the constitution of the party, which is failed to do, making the purported expulsion, unlawful, illegal, invalid and void of any legal effect.”

Paul Lopez

“How does this does this back and forth impact the journey to unity?”

Tracy Taegar-Panton

“I think it is highly unnecessary. I thought going back to court was highly unnecessary. But you cannot trample on the rights and privileges of members, of elected officials or appointed officials. Hence we had to go back to court. It is my hope that we can move forward to stop the hemorrhaging, we have bled to death in my view, stop the hemorrhaging and move forward to unite the party so we can be what we have a mandate to be, a robust opposition that will hold this administration to account.”