Israel Attacks Iran

Israel conducted a military strike inside Iran. This marks a potentially hazardous escalation in the rapidly evolving conflict across the Middle East. Iranian state media said that the country’s air defense systems were activated in Isfahan and Tabriz following three explosions near a major military airbase close to Isfahan. 

Major General Abdolrahim Mousavi, Iran’s army commander-in-chief, attributed the explosions above Isfahan to anti-aircraft systems engaging a suspicious object, without causing damage. Other Iranian sources mentioned the interception of three drones by air defenses, with no reports of a missile strike.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken confirmed later that the US was not involved in any offensive operations but was focused on Israel’s defense and de-escalation efforts.

Israel’s Iron Dome air defense system launches to intercept missiles fired from Iran on Sunday. Tomer Neuberg / AP April 13, 2024

Tensions in the Middle East have remained high since Iran’s unprecedented direct strike against Israel on Saturday, which saw Iran launch over 300 drones and cruise missiles towards Israel in retaliation for a suspected Israeli strike on an Iranian diplomatic complex in Damascus earlier in April.

The Western allies of Israel have voiced support for Israel while also calling for restraint in the wake of Iran’s attack on Saturday. 

Will Iran’s Attack Lead to Higher Fuel Prices? 

Increased tensions in the Middle East may lead to higher fuel prices. Experts are expecting that Iran’s recent attack on Israel will potentially cause fuel prices to soar and disrupt global supplies if the conflict escalates further. Israel’s war cabinet has assessed military strategies for possible retaliation against Iran. Israel has declared its intent to retaliate and “exact a price” following the unprecedented drone and missile assault.

While oil prices initially surged in anticipation of such an escalation, they later stabilised. The International Energy Agency says that the escalating conflict underscores the vulnerability of oil markets. The recent attack by Iran also raises concerns about potential disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. This is a critical passage for the global oil trade. Any significant disruption could have a profound impact on oil supplies and prices worldwide.

Strait of Hormuz/ENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION

While the conflict presents risks to oil markets, factors such as production from non-OPEC+ countries may offer some relief in mitigating these impacts in the short term.

Oil prices have surged alongside escalating tensions in the Middle East this month. U.S. benchmark crude futures rose by 5%, while global benchmark Brent crude gained nearly 6%. The Strait of Hormuz remains a critical factor.” Iran’s ability to block the Strait of Hormuz is its secret weapon. The Strait serves as the world’s most important oil-transit chokepoint. Global oil inventories are already low, and any disruption to supplies could further deplete them, leading to higher oil prices.

Iran Attacks Israel

Israel’s war cabinet is expected to reconvene soon to discuss actions in response to Iran’s attack.

Overnight on Sunday, a barrage of drones and missiles surged towards Israel, increasing tensions in the Middle East. The assault, launched by Iran, was in retaliation for a suspected Israeli strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus earlier this month. Several Iranian generals were killed in that attack.

Iran and its allies from Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and Lebanon launched approximately 350 rockets, comprising over 170 drones, 30 cruise missiles, and 120 ballistic missiles. The majority of these were intercepted, with minimal impact on Israeli territory, as reported by Israeli military sources and the White House.

The unprecedented attack marked a significant escalation in the region.

Israel continues to face pressure from its allies to refrain from escalating towards open warfare and instead pursue a path of de-escalation.

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