Will Belizeans Pay More for Fuel Because of Israel-Iran War?

The ongoing war between Israel and Iran sparked the biggest single-day jump in oil prices in three years. Since early June, Brent crude prices surged about $10 per barrel, reaching $78 on Friday amid fears that the conflict could disrupt Iranian oil exports or restrict Middle East crude supplies globally.

Currently, prices have eased to around $72 per barrel, still below the $115 peak seen after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Market experts say future price moves depend largely on how much the military and humanitarian crisis escalates.

Deutsche Bank analysts warn that oil could spike to $120 per barrel if the conflict widens, especially if the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping route, is blocked, cutting off Middle Eastern oil exports. However, they consider this extreme and believe the market has already factored in some Iranian supply losses, likely keeping prices near $75.

Rystad Energy agrees, suggesting the US’s involvement could contain tensions and cap prices below $80 per barrel by maintaining regional calm.

Regarding Belize’s situation, Minister of State Christopher Coye addressed concerns about fuel prices not reflecting shifts in the world market. He explained, “I think in terms of fuel, there are shifts upwards and downwards and with respect to the fuel and the tax revenues from fuel that is adjusted, having regard to those changes in fuel prices. But at the same time the government does have to generate tax revenues to pay for all the expenses, including the proposed salary increase.”