Caribbean Braces for Severe Drought as El Niño Rapidly Intensifies, Belize Flagged as At Risk
Regional climate scientists are warning of an emerging climate crisis across the Caribbean as El Niño conditions intensify faster than expected, with Belize specifically flagged as vulnerable to agricultural losses.
The Caribbean Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology says El Niño strengthened from weak to moderate by July and is now on track to reach very strong levels between October and December, persisting into the region’s peak Dry Season in March 2027.
CIMH Climatologist Dr. Cedric Van Meerbeeck says the timing is concerning, since August through October marks the region’s Heat Season, with dry conditions potentially extending into 2027.
Van Meerbeeck points to past El Niño droughts in 2009-2010 and 2014-2016, plus record heat years in 2010, 2023, and 2024, as warning signs. Drought conditions are forecast across the Windward, Leeward, and ABC Islands, parts of Jamaica and Hispaniola, and The Bahamas by October or November.
The report specifically names Belize and Jamaica as areas of concern for rainfed agriculture, warning reduced rainfall combined with rising temperatures could threaten food security for subsistence farmers.
Professor Michael Taylor, Co-Director of UWI’s Climate Studies Group Mona, says the risks are now materializing.
“The risks signalled by the science earlier this year are now beginning to materialise. We are seeing an emerging climate disaster whose impacts combine heat, drought, and marine extremes. Unlike a hurricane, the impacts will continue to build over months.”
Officials warn of rising health risks tied to water quality, vector-borne disease, and heat illness, plus added strain on water and energy systems and the tourism sector.
CIMH Principal Dr. David Farrell stressed the need for early action.
“Proactive measures are vital for mitigating the impacts of extreme weather events on climate sensitive sectors, communities, and national economies.”
Officials are urging the public to follow monthly updates from the Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum as the region heads toward its Dry Season.