Bolsonaro Beats Poll Projections as Brazil Heads to Lula Runoff

Brazil is heading to an October 25 runoff between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, after neither secured the 50 per cent needed to win outright Sunday, CNN reports.

Together, the two took more than 92 percent of the vote. According to CNN, Bolsonaro exceeded poll projections and gained nearly four points more than his father did in the 2022 first round, running on crime and the economy.

He won São Paulo and Minas Gerais, a state that has backed the eventual winner in every presidential election since 1989. Lula took 43.21 per cent there, down from 48.3 per cent in 2022, and fell short of the lead his campaign wanted in the Northeast, his stronghold.

The runoff will hinge on voters from eliminated candidates, who took 7.82 per cent, mostly centre-right or right-leaning, and on the roughly 21 per cent of eligible voters who stayed home. Bolsonaro also enters the second round with momentum: his party and allies won numerous Senate seats and key governorships.

Trump and Argentine President Javier Milei have both backed Bolsonaro, though Trump has been quieter lately. Analyst Farid Kahhat told CNN the restraint may be strategic.

“They’ve noticed that in Brazil, [interference] might not work the same way as it does in Honduras or Colombia,” Kahhat said.

CNN reports a Bolsonaro win would hand Trump a powerful ideological ally in the region’s largest country and could strengthen Washington’s hand as it seeks to counter China’s influence in the hemisphere.