Below-Normal Hurricane Season? El Niño May Change That, Here’s Why

Belize could see a slightly below-normal hurricane season this year, according to the National Meteorological Service of Belize (NMS). However, forecasters are warning against complacency at the possibility that a moderate-to-strong El Niño could develop at the height of this year’s hurricane season.

According to the World Meteorological Organisation, forecast models show more than a 60% chance of El Niño forming in the coming months, with some estimates putting the risk of a stronger event called “super El Niño” at about one in four.

So what exactly is El Niño?

El Niño is part of a global climate pattern driven by unusually warm waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. That warming disrupts wind patterns and jet streams, shifting rainfall and temperatures worldwide. It can trigger drought in some regions and severe flooding in others. Stronger events have been linked to record global heat, crop failures, water shortages, and extreme weather swings.

Simply put by NMS’s chief meteorologist, Ronald Gordon, “El Niño typically means more vertical wind shear, disrupting hurricanes for this part of the globe. Therefore, for this hurricane season, the forecast is going for just a bit below normal.”

What could it mean for Belize?.

For the Caribbean, El Niño typically brings increased vertical wind shear, which can weaken or disrupt hurricane formation. Gordon says this is why early forecasts suggest a slightly below normal Atlantic hurricane season. However, it does not eliminate risk.

Gordon advised Belizeans against complacency with a stark warning, saying, “As we always say, ‘Don’t study those numbers, because just one hurricane could impact us and be very bad.’ So, again, reminding citizens to be alert, be aware, and be prepared.”

Even in quieter seasons, storms can rapidly intensify and cause major damage.

Why are scientists worried this time?

Scientists say current ocean temperatures and climate signals are aligning in a way that could strengthen the event into a “Super El Niño”. Combined with already rising global temperatures, it could push heat records even higher and worsen extreme weather worldwide.

What should Belize take from this?

Despite the possibility of fewer storms, officials stress preparedness over prediction. Forecasts can change, and El Niño does not remove risk.