Forecasters predict ‘extremely active’ 2024 Atlantic hurricane season

Weather forecasters from Colorado State University (CSU) have projected an “extremely active” 2024 Atlantic hurricane season due to warm sea surface temperatures and reduced wind shear during the summer and fall months. The report says that current El Niño conditions are likely to transition to La Niña conditions this summer/fall, leading to hurricane-favourable wind shear conditions. 

According to the CSU forecast, there are expected to be a total of 23 named storms, with five of them developing into major hurricanes, characterized by winds exceeding 111 miles per hour (178 kph), out of a total of 11 hurricanes.

The report explains that sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central Atlantic are at historically high levels and are expected to remain significantly above average throughout the upcoming hurricane season. It says that this heightened warmth in the tropical Atlantic creates conditions favorable for the formation and strengthening of hurricanes.

With high confidence in this early April outlook, CSU projects a substantially increased likelihood of major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. 

It’s crucial to note that, despite predictions, every hurricane season carries the potential for significant impact. Coastal residents must remain vigilant and prepare thoroughly, as even a single hurricane landfall can define an active season. 

Тhе 2024 ѕtоrm nаmеѕ аrе:

Аlbеrtо

Веrуl

Сhrіѕ

Dеbbу

Еrnеѕtо

Frаnсіnе

Gоrdоn

Неlеnе

Іѕаас

Јоусе

Кіrk

Lеѕlіе

Міltоn

Nаdіnе

Оѕсаr

Раttу

Rаfаеl

Ѕаrа

Тоnу

Vаlеrіе

Wіllіаm

Why are hurricanes given names? 

According to the National Hurricane Center, employing concise and distinctive names in both written and spoken communication proves to be more efficient and accurate compared to older methods reliant on latitude and longitude. Additionally, using easily memorable names helps mitigate confusion, especially during periods when multiple storms occur simultaneously.

What happens if the predetermined list of hurricane names is exhausted?

Prior to 2020, when all names were used, the Greek alphabet was utilized, assigning names like Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta, Zeta, Eta, Theta, etc. This occurred twice, once in 2005 and again in 2020. Now, instead of resorting to the Greek alphabet, a supplementary list of tropical cyclone names will be employed.

Belize’s Heat Wave To Be Broken By Cold Front

On Tuesday, the National Meteorological Service issued a heat alert, warning the public that temperatures were expected to exceed ninety-seven degrees Fahrenheit. Since then, Belize has experienced extreme levels of heat, with some areas rising to one hundred-and three degrees Fahrenheit. Fortunately, temperatures are expected to fall as a cold front is predicted to pass over the country on Thursday. As conditions continue to change, the National Meteorological Service of Belize is advising all to remain mindful and vigilant of the weather. We spoke with the Chief Meteorologist, Ronald Gordon, for an update.

 

                                Ronald Gordon

Ronald Gordon, Chief Meteorologist
“We issued a heat alert starting yesterday. And it continues today. We issued those heat alerts whenever temperatures inland are expected to exceed ninety-seven degrees Fahrenheit. Currently, or what we observed yesterday was that temperatures varied from about ninety along coastal areas to the lower one hundreds inland. For example, in Central Farm, we recorded one hundred two degrees Fahrenheit, and the highest was in Chaa Creek, which was one hundred three degrees Fahrenheit. These are from our network of automatic weather stations. They are not quality checked as such as it is, so they are preliminary data, but certainly they give us an indication of how hot it was. And that is the reason why we issued those heat alerts. Actually, we are expecting a cold front  to come over our area later tonight. And so we will see temperatures decrease a bit. I, therefore today’s actually the last day for this particular heat wave. Tomorrow should be a bit cooler. It’s not going to be cold. It’s not a cool front like in December, but certainly it’s going to be a relief from the extremely hot conditions that we are currently experiencing. One of the measures that we advise our residents to do, of course, is to remain hydrated, you drink a lot of water, fresh juices. Avoid going into the direct sunlight, if possible. I know that’s not possible for everyone, but if you can avoid it, try to avoid it as much as possible. If you’re able to get some sort of shading, try to take that. And of course, the clothes that you wear as well. Try to wear clothes that will be a bit cooler and that type of thing. And then we advise, of course, for persons to look out for each other, especially our elderly, vulnerable population, people with disability and young Children and even our pets. So certainly we need to be very caring of others at this time. Heat, exhaustion and heat stress is real. It can have devastating impact and it can be even fatal. So certainly we advise residents to take these precautions and take them seriously.”

Combating Climate Change Includes Adaptation

More intense heatwaves are one of the effects of climate change, and as Belize continues to bolster efforts towards climate resilience, extreme weather conditions worsen. Belize and other Small Island Developing States emit the least amount of carbon into the atmosphere but still experience the most impacts. Last year, the world observed one of the hottest days in recorded history, and according to the World Meteorological Organization, there is a high probability that this year will break the record. We spoke with Chief Meteorologist Ronald Gordon to hear what the trends are looking like moving forward.

 

Ronald Gordon, Chief Meteorologist
“When you look at the longer-term climate trend, it is very clear that we are in an era where our temperatures are warming up. There is no denying that. So certainly, in the long term, we are seeing an increase in temperatures due to climate change. Climate change due to human induced climate change to be specific. However, there’s a thing called climate variability. So there will be exceptional years where it’s going to be extremely hot other than other years, you will have other years where the temperatures will dip a bit. So it’s the natural variables within the climate system. Last year in particular was extremely hot for two reasons. Of course, I mentioned we have human induced climate change, which is causing temperatures to increase, but on top of that, we’ve had a linear year, which means that conditions are actually hotter and warmer, and drier, in our area, so certainly those factors combined resulted in a very hot year last year, and what we are seeing right now, based on the current trend, is that we’re also heading for a very hot year I must mention that, on the short term, I’m talking about doing two things here. So on the short term, which is the water scale, we are going to see things changing a bit over the next few hours. Indeed looking at what we have done already to the climate system. It is very difficult to see that we can reverse the impacts. Certainly, we can alleviate and that what has that is what is being done, I believe, but the regional and the international level to try to mitigate the impacts now by reducing, of course, our carbon footprint. However, there are, there is already a lot of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and those take some time to actually come out of the atmosphere. They have a long life as such. Therefore, even if we cut emissions at this point. There will be some continuing heating and warming up of the atmosphere. So to answer your second point, I believe you mentioned that we need to adapt and that’s certainly one of the measures that we take in our region, because as most of us know. We are not a major emitter. So countries like ours, we are not the culprit, so to speak, of for what is occurring. So one of the things that we are encouraged to do is to adapt to the effects of climate change.”

 

MET Office Issues Heat Alert 

The National Meteorological Office of Belize has issued a Heat Alert. The advisory says “Temperatures are expected to exceed 97F inland. Residents are advised to stay hydrated and avoid outdoor activities as much as possible, especially during afternoon hours.”

Inland is expected to be 103 degrees Fahrenheit.

Here are some tips to stay hydrated in hot weather:

-Drink Plenty of Water
-Eat Hydrating Foods
-Avoid Alcohol and Caffeine:
-Take Regular Breaks
-Wear Light Clothing
-Replenish Electrolytes

Pet owners are also advised to keep their pets hydrated.

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