NOAA Predicts Below-Normal 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration are predicting a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season for 2026, but officials are warning that residents should still prepare early because even one storm can have devastating effects.

The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1 to November 30. According to NOAA’s outlook, there is a fifty-five percent chance of a below-normal season, a thirty-five percent chance of a near-normal season, and only a ten percent chance of an above-normal season.

NOAA is forecasting between eight and fourteen named storms this year. Of those systems, three to six are expected to strengthen into hurricanes, including one to three major hurricanes with winds exceeding one hundred and eleven miles per hour.

NOAA and the National Weather Service are using advanced forecasting technology and hurricane tracking systems to provide faster and more accurate storm warnings.

NOAA is also integrating artificial intelligence weather models, drones, and next-generation satellite data to improve forecasting accuracy and help protect lives and property.

Forecasters say the expected development of El Niño conditions is one of the main reasons for the lower activity forecast. El Niño typically suppresses hurricane formation in the Atlantic Basin. However, slightly warmer-than-normal Atlantic Ocean temperatures and weaker trade winds could still support storm development.

The agency added that the seasonal outlook does not predict where storms will make landfall, as those impacts depend on short-term weather patterns throughout the season.