What’s Coming Weather-Wise?

Belize’s meteorological and disaster management organisations gathered last week for the opening of the 14th Annual National Climate Outlook Forum, with El Niño conditions already declared and forecasters warning that extended dry spells and erratic rainfall could be ahead.

The two-day forum, held under the theme of strengthening disaster risk management through climate services, brings together government agencies, the private sector, regional organisations, and civil society to examine what the coming season looks like and how key sectors should prepare.

Chief Meteorologist Ronald Gordon said El Niño is no longer a possibility but a reality, and stakeholders need to understand what that means for their planning. “Which could mean that we’ll have extended dry spells, but certainly it doesn’t mean that we won’t have excessive rainfall in a very short period, as we saw last week,” he said.

Gordon said the forum serves two primary purposes: presenting sectors including agriculture, tourism, energy, water resource management, and disaster management with the seasonal forecast for rainfall, drought, heat, and tropical cyclone activity and then getting feedback from those same sectors on whether the Met Service is giving them what they actually need.

“We need to consult continuously with our stakeholders to determine whether we are providing them with what they need, what is relevant to them,” he said.

On top of the El Niño outlook, Gordon said 2026 has already seen a very active sargassum season. The Met Service is issuing weekly forecasts and alerting specific coastal communities about the potential for increased seaweed beaching. Gordon noted that sargassum typically peaks in August, meaning the worst of the season is still ahead.